Locating uncertainty in stochastic evolutionary models: divergence time estimation

Characterization of the Uncertainty of Divergence Time Estimation under Relaxed Molecular Clock Models Using Multiple Loci

Genetic sequence data provide information about the distances between species or branch lengths in a phylogeny, but not about the absolute divergence times or the evolutionary rates directly. Bayesian methods for dating species divergences estimate times and rates by assigning priors on them. In particular, the prior on times (node ages on the phylogeny) incorporates information in the fossil r...

Divergence time and evolutionary rate estimation with multilocus data.

Bayesian methods for estimating evolutionary divergence times are extended to multigene data sets, and a technique is described for detecting correlated changes in evolutionary rates among genes. Simulations are employed to explore the effect of multigene data on divergence time estimation, and the methodology is illustrated with a previously published data set representing diverse plant taxa. ...

Dynamic Journey Time Estimation in Stochastic Road Networks with Uncertainty

This paper investigates the dynamic journey time estimation (DJTE) problem, which can be used to estimate simultaneously the mean and standard deviation (SD) of path journey times in stochastic road networks. In this paper, a bi-level programming model is proposed to solve the DJTE problem. The upper level is to minimize the deviations of the mean and SD between the estimated and observed path ...

Accounting for calibration uncertainty in phylogenetic estimation of evolutionary divergence times.

Dynamics in stochastic evolutionary models

We characterize transitions between stochastically stable states and relative ergodic probabilities in the theory of the evolution of conventions. We give an application to the fall of hegemonies in the evolutionary theory of institutions and con ict and illustrate the theory with the fall of the Qing Dynasty and rise of Communism in China. JEL Classi cation Numbers: C73 (Evolutionary Games)